Fetching latest market data…
Could not load model state.
Try again in a few minutes — the refresh cron may not have run yet.
 Champions League | — |
 Europa League | — |
| Conference League | — |
| No Europe | — |
Recent form
Lev's remaining matches
| MD | Match | When | Bookmaker |
|---|
Final Bundesliga position
Each row is a possible Lev league position. Contribution = P(rank=k) × P(CL | rank=k); summing the column gives the headline P(Lev → CL).
| Rank | P(rank) | P(CL | rank) | P(EL | rank) | P(ECL | rank) | P(none | rank) | Contribution to P(CL)P(CL) share |
|---|
Bundesliga table
| Pos | Team | Pts | GD | GF | MP |
|---|
Pick scenarios for the matches you care about, and the model re-runs in the browser. Nothing is sent to a server — your fixes are private and stay in this tab.
Bundesliga — remaining
| MD | Match | Score |
|---|
DFB-Pokal final
| Match | Score |
|---|
UEFA — semi-finals & finals
These affect Lev only via Germany's UEFA coefficient — moving the “EPS” (5th CL slot) odds, not Lev's CL chance directly. Useful for digging into worst-case / best-case scenarios involving German clubs.
| Comp | Tie / final | Outcome |
|---|
The math, in one paragraph
Lev finishes top-4 in the Bundesliga and they're in the Champions League. Finish 5th and they're in
if Germany earns the “European Performance Spot” (EPS) — a bonus 5th CL slot for the country
with the second-highest UEFA single-season club coefficient. Anything below 5th: no CL.
Formally: P(Lev → CL) = P(rank ≤ 4) + P(rank = 5) × P(EPS).
Where every input comes from
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|
All inputs are pulled live twice a day so the model stays in sync with bookmaker movements and openligadb match results. The header at the top shows when the current snapshot was fetched.
UEFA brackets — current SF leg-1 odds
| Comp | Match | Date | H / D / A | Source |
|---|
Coefficient race
Frequently asked
Why is the CL chance lower than the league table suggests?
A few uncertainties compound. The teams ahead of Lev also have games to play and pick up points — closing a gap means outscoring rivals, not just matching them. Bookmaker H/D/A on individual fixtures rarely gives any one team more than ~70% on a single match, so even a "should win" game is real uncertainty in the model. And finishing 5th only opens the CL door if Germany wins the EPS race against Spain (see Coefficient race above) — a separate coin flip on top of league position. The model multiplies these uncertainties, which is why the headline number can feel lower than the standings would suggest.
Does winning the DFB-Pokal help Lev?
Only when an outside-the-European-spots team wins it. The Pokal winner gets a Europa League berth, but if the winner is already qualified for Europe via league position (top-4 = CL, the next ranks pick up EL/ECL by other rules), that EL slot cascades down to the next non-qualified team. When both Pokal finalists are already CL- or EL-bound, the cascade goes the same way regardless of who lifts the trophy — Lev's number doesn't move. The Pokal swings Lev's odds when a club outside the European-qualifying ranks reaches the final and wins, taking the EL slot directly and displacing whoever Lev are competing with.
What is the EPS / 5th CL slot?
UEFA's "European Performance Spot" awards a bonus 5th Champions League berth to each of the top two countries in the single-season UEFA club coefficient. Country coefficient = average points across all clubs the country sent to Europe that season. One slot usually goes early to a country with strong continental depth across multiple competitions. The other tends to come down to a tighter race between two leagues — the live contenders are tracked in the Coefficient race section above. If the Bundesliga wins it, the 5th-placed Bundesliga team plays Champions League instead of Europa. That's the single mechanism by which Lev's CL chance survives a 5th-place finish.
Model assumptions and known limits
- Bundesliga remaining: real H/D/A from The Odds API where bookmakers have quoted; Dixon-Coles model fitted on this season's completed matches for the rest.
- UEFA semi-finals: Polymarket reach-final markets (CL & EL); uniform 50/50 prior for the Conference League since no public outright market exists.
- UEFA finals: conditional on the sampled finalists, win probability is taken from Polymarket trophy-winner markets (CL/EL) or 50/50 (ECL).
- Coefficient race: live UEFA single-season totals from kassiesa.net, plus +2/+1 win/draw points and round-reach bonuses from Lev's own model.
- Goal-difference tiebreaker uses each team's H2H goals across the season — the actual Bundesliga rule has more steps (H2H points → H2H GD → H2H away goals), edge cases can give the wrong tiebreak.